Job losses, pay cuts, and ineffective retraining could mimic the trajectory of the Rust Belt
In the first four articles of this series, I explored the effect of autonomous vehicles on media choices, travel and hospitality, logistics, and public transportation. A common thread through each of these industries? The workers whose livelihoods stand to be upended by this disruptive technology.
How Will Workers Be Affected?
In December 2016, the White House estimated that automation is threatening 80 to 100 percent of heavy or tractor-trailer truck driving jobs. Human employees will still be needed in some instances — for example, to manage cargo en route or to oversee delivery of high-risk or fragile goods. But even in cases where jobs are not lost, will they get the same kind of pay for handing off part of their current jobs to automation, especially when many en route tasks could be handled remotely or solely at a truck’s final destination?
When autonomous vehicles become comfortable and useful enough to allow passengers to stop less frequently (particularly on longer trips), the jobs of anyone who works in the travel and hospitality industries will be at risk. Sure, plenty of hospitality businesses that are near attractions or sufficiently supported by a local community might not see too much of a hit to their bottom line. But will diners, rest stops, and motels that are wholly dependent on vehicle traffic survive the transition, and will automation disproportionately impact smaller, rural towns?
It’s hard to argue that the mainstream adoption of autonomous vehicles, whether owned or shared, will be a rising tide for the transportation industry. When public transportation networks are sunk by more flexible autonomous transportation options, all of their employees are faced with an uncertain future, as are the millions of taxi and ride-share drivers around the world. Not to mention that, eventually, autonomous vehicles will mean many fewer cars are needed on the road at any time — which will mean that car manufacturers will shed jobs, too.
When taken into account with other kinds of work that automation will threaten — whether through the utilization of artificial intelligence or robotics — we’re talking about a significant percentage of the workforce who will be affected. Will the millions of people in these sectors instantly lose their jobs once autonomy goes mainstream? Of course not. But it’s not hard to imagine that those sectors will need fewer employees over time, and that those remaining may be unable to command the same salaries and benefits they did before. It will take both investment and time to transition these workers into new professions.
Read more in my series, Your Autonomous Future, commissioned by Medium.